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pdw @ zoomshare
blog pdw
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Sun, 06 Apr 2008
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More Random iPhone Speculation
Seems iPhone rumors are in vogue again
as more than a few observers have noted that Apple’s supply of iPhones in the US isn’t
currently keeping up in the order fulfillment department. Given
Apple’s “just-in-time” supply chain, this has given
a few analyst reason to suggest that iPhone updates are just around the corner since
Apple traditionally slows down its supply chain ahead of new
product releases.
While I do expect a 3G iPhone from Apple this year, I don’t
think it’s going to be released in the next few days. Nope, June is my
guess. Why? Well, Apple just released the larger 16 GB iPhone in
February while also seeding the software development kit (SDK) for the iPhone/iPod Touch in beta
form that will be formally released in June at its annual developer conference. Since June
will also mark the one year anniversary of
the iPhone why not celebrate (and more to the point make sure
the press takes notice) with a newer 3G model?
More to the point of 3G, last year Apple
announced that as part of its worldwide rollout for the
iPhone, Asia would see the iPhone in 2008. While that
technically gives Apple till December, it does raise the point that
Japan (and I think South Korea) use at the minimum 3G backed
networks. Thus to release the iPhone in Japan, as part of an Asia
rollout, Apple will need to have a 3G capable phone. Recent
rumors also
include “wish list” items such as VoIP and video
conferencing, which on a 3G network (or WiFi in the case of
Voice over IP, why would AT&T allow you to bypass their voice
network?) might not be too bad.
But my question is what will come of those older iPhones? Apple
has a sales goal of 10
million iPhones by the end of 2008. Why completely stop
production of perfectly viable models that can be sold at a lower
price point with AT&T or, dare
I hope, unlocked for use with other networks? Thus I think
the supply issue is just a bump in the road for Apple, perhaps an
issue with an upstream supplier? Perhaps, an issue with its flash memory supplier, which is
working in tight market conditions as it and other manufactures
ramp up to meet demand for ever increasing memory capacity in
various devices (phones, cameras, USB drives, portable media
devices, et. al.).
As for the unlocked iPhone executives at Apple have mentioned
that they are “not wedded” to the
locked-networked bundle method. Other cell phone makers have
“exclusive” contracts with service providers that don’t completely
preclude them from selling unlocked models. The question here,
which I can’t answer, is what does AT&T’s 5-year
exclusivity mean for Apple? Could it mean AT&T just gets
exclusive dibs on new models? Does it mean feature set?
After all I suspect Apple can easily make its 10 million mark if it
sold the current 2.5G models in 8, 16 or perhaps 32 GB variations
at less than the current $399 price point and a “premium” model
with Visual Voicemail, iChat video conferencing, 32 GB or more
memory and 3G data network capability exclusively for AT&T
customers at the same time. As a bonus, with an unlocked phone
and SDK release Apple would deliver and one-two knockout
punch to the underground
iPhone market.
Posted 10:26
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