Seems
iPhone rumors are in vogue
again
as more than a few observers have noted that
Apple’s supply of iPhones in
the US isn’t
currently keeping up in the order fulfillment
department. Given
Apple’s “
just-in-time” supply chain,
this has given
a few analyst reason to suggest that iPhone
updates are just around the
corner since
Apple traditionally slows down its supply chain
ahead of new
product releases.
While I do expect a
3G iPhone from Apple this year,
I don’t
think it’s going to be released in the next few
days. Nope,
June is my
guess. Why? Well, Apple just
released the larger 16 GB iPhone in
February while also
seeding the software development
kit (
SDK) for the iPhone/iPod Touch
in beta
form that will be formally released in June at its
annual developer conference.
Since June
will also mark the
one year
anniversary of
the iPhone why not celebrate (and more to the point
make sure
the press takes notice) with a newer 3G model?
More to the point of 3G,
last year Apple
announced that as part of its worldwide rollout for
the
iPhone, Asia would see the iPhone in 2008.
While that
technically gives Apple till December, it does
raise the point that
Japan (and I think South Korea) use at the minimum
3G backed
networks. Thus to release the iPhone in Japan, as
part of an Asia
rollout, Apple will need to have a 3G capable
phone. Recent
rumors also
include “wish list” items such as
VoIP and
video
conferencing, which on a 3G network (or WiFi in
the case of
Voice over IP, why would AT&T allow you to bypass
their voice
network?) might not be too bad.
But my question is what will come of those older
iPhones? Apple
has a
sales
goal of 10
million iPhones by the end of 2008. Why
completely stop
production of perfectly viable models that can be
sold at a lower
price point with AT&T or,
dare
I hope, unlocked for use with other networks?
Thus I think
the supply issue is just a bump in the road for
Apple, perhaps an
issue with an upstream supplier? Perhaps, an issue
with its flash memory supplier,
which is
working in tight market conditions as it and other
manufactures
ramp up to meet demand for ever increasing memory
capacity in
various devices (phones, cameras, USB drives,
portable media
devices, et. al.).
As for the unlocked iPhone executives at Apple have
mentioned
that they are “
not wedded”
to the
locked-networked bundle method. Other cell phone
makers have
“exclusive” contracts with service providers that
don’t completely
preclude them from selling unlocked models. The
question here,
which I can’t answer, is what does AT&T’s
5-year
exclusivity mean for Apple? Could it mean AT&T
just gets
exclusive dibs on new models? Does it mean feature
set?
After all I suspect Apple can easily make its 10
million mark if it
sold the current 2.5G models in 8, 16 or perhaps 32
GB variations
at less than the current $399 price point and a
“premium” model
with Visual Voicemail, iChat video conferencing, 32
GB or more
memory and 3G data network capability exclusively
for AT&T
customers at the same time. As a bonus, with an
unlocked phone
and SDK release Apple would deliver and one-two
knockout
punch to the
underground
iPhone market.
